Prediction and Intelligence. We've tended to think of cognition as a feed-forward phenomenon—moving from the fragmentary/unknown to the integrated/known to a conscious decision and behavioral response. Hawkins argues however that intelligent thought requires the backward flow of information to be as robust as the forward flow. Analysis of cortical organization and the direction of neuronal fiber projections suggests that he's correct.

Hawkins defines intelligence as the ability to correctly predict what will occur, and argues that prediction requires a continual comparison between what is occurring and what we expect to occur. Feedback pathways thus intelligently insert memories of previous related events into cognitive processing before sensory input records the actual event. For example, we expect to see our car in the garage before we actually see it.

We then especially attend to whatever doesn't match our predictions—the car isn't in the garage. Such unexpected events activate critical thinking and problem solving behaviors. An intelligent person with broad experience thus moves confidently through a mostly predictable life, imagining plausible explanations and developing successful alternate strategies when the unexpected occurs. Creative thought occurs when predictions are based on analogy because the current challenge doesn't precisely match our prior experience.