Last month's column focused on Jeff Hawkins' thoughtprovoking analysis of the nature of the elusive human property we call intelligence. Hawkins defines intelligence as the ability to predict what will occur and to develop an appropriate response. He argues that prediction requires a continual cognitive comparison between what is occurring and what we expect will occur.

Two central elements in intelligent prediction and response are (1) how rapidly we can predict and respond to an event, and (2) the amount and type of information we need for effective prediction and response. The conventional wisdom has been that the best results emerge from the reflective analysis of a lot of relevant data.

Malcolm Gladwell explores this issue in his fascinating non-technical book, Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking (2005). He argues that subconscious snap judgments play a far more significant role in our lives than most people realize. He makes his case principally through a series of well-chosen, engagingly-told examples of snap judgments—decisions made during the first few seconds of an encounter. Some turned out well; others were a disaster. The underlying science is implicit in the stories, and adequately explained in Notes at the back of the book.

Those who can quickly and correctly predict and respond to dangers and opportunities are more apt to live long enough to enhance the gene pool, so whatever is innate about rapid successful prediction and response has become integral to human life. We're thus capable of making rapid successful subconscious judgments, and we tend to value that ability. For example, it was proudly decisive George W. Bush who received 51% of the presidential vote rather than proudly reflective John Kerry. The rhetoric from both campaigns magnified that personality difference.